{
  "version": "m3-v0.1",
  "title": "Committed Carbon Debt — Reconstruction Module",
  "description": "Embodied carbon proxy for post-conflict reconstruction demand. Covers cement-sector process emissions only. Designed as a conservative lower-bound estimate; excluded categories (steel, logistics, machinery) would increase total significantly.",
  "boundary": "cement embodied emissions from building reconstruction only",
  "included": [
    "cement clinker process emissions (CO₂ from limestone calcination, ~60% of total cement EF)",
    "fuel combustion for cement kiln operations",
    "concrete material demand proxy (cement content × concrete volume per floor area)"
  ],
  "excluded": [
    "steel and rebar embodied emissions",
    "debris removal, sorting and transport",
    "construction machinery diesel fuel",
    "grid, utility and infrastructure reconstruction",
    "lifecycle operational emissions (heating, cooling, electricity)",
    "transportation of construction materials to site"
  ],
  "scenarios": {
    "conservative": {
      "material_factor_tco2e_per_m2": 0.15,
      "description": "Low-carbon rebuild: reduced-clinker cement, efficient mix design, minimal reinforcement. Best-case scenario for post-conflict reconstruction under modern standards.",
      "cement_content_kg_per_m3": 280,
      "concrete_volume_m3_per_m2": 0.25
    },
    "baseline": {
      "material_factor_tco2e_per_m2": 0.30,
      "description": "Standard RC construction proxy: typical reinforced concrete mix, current regional practice. Mid-range scenario for generic reconstruction planning.",
      "cement_content_kg_per_m3": 330,
      "concrete_volume_m3_per_m2": 0.30
    },
    "high": {
      "material_factor_tco2e_per_m2": 0.50,
      "description": "Conventional heavy rebuild: high-clinker cement, over-specified mix, large infrastructure components. Applicable to major public works and non-residential heavy construction.",
      "cement_content_kg_per_m3": 380,
      "concrete_volume_m3_per_m2": 0.35
    }
  },
  "factor_derivation": {
    "cement_emission_factor_note": "0.83 tCO₂/t is treated as a high-carbon / high-clinker proxy upper bound, NOT the IEA central cement-sector average. The IEA Cement Sector Report 2023 gives a current central estimate of approximately 0.60 tCO₂/t at global average clinker-to-cement ratio (~0.72). The 0.83 figure reflects a high-clinker ratio (~0.90) applicable to older kiln technology or regions with limited blended cement adoption. Users requiring region-specific factors should substitute the appropriate national/regional value.",
    "cement_emission_factor_central_iea_tco2_per_t": 0.60,
    "cement_emission_factor_high_clinker_proxy_tco2_per_t": 0.83,
    "source_cement_ef": "IEA Cement Sector Report 2023; IPCC AR6 WG3 Chapter 11 (Industry)",
    "source_mix_design": "EN 206:2013+A2:2021 (Concrete specification); ACI 318-19 (Building code requirements)",
    "source_floor_area_to_volume": "World Bank Infrastructure Notes; UNHCR shelter unit data"
  },
  "datasets_used": {
    "rs-ukraine-rdna3-proxy": {
      "region": "Ukraine",
      "conflict": "Russia-Ukraine War",
      "source_name": "World Bank Ukraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment — RDNA3 (Feb 2024)",
      "assessment_date": "2024-02",
      "period_covered": "2022-02-24 to 2023-12-31",
      "floor_area_m2": 135000000,
      "floor_area_confidence": "low",
      "floor_area_notes": "Internal floor-area proxy derived from RDNA3 housing and public infrastructure damage categories. The 135M m² figure is not directly quoted as a floor-area total in RDNA3; it is an internal estimation based on RDNA3 damage cost categories disaggregated by sector. Users should treat this as an order-of-magnitude proxy pending a direct structural survey.",
      "source_url": "https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/817e607e-2933-4b5c-a716-8af453ca1ed0"
    },
    "rs-gaza-city-unosat-20250923": {
      "region": "Gaza City / Gaza Governorate",
      "conflict": "Israel-Gaza War (Oct 2023–)",
      "source_name": "UNOSAT Building Damage Assessment — Gaza Governorate (23 Sep 2025)",
      "assessment_date": "2025-09-23",
      "aoi_area_km2": 45,
      "structures_assessed": 41221,
      "floor_area_m2": 27000000,
      "floor_area_confidence": "medium",
      "floor_area_notes": "Estimated from UNOSAT destroyed + severely damaged structure counts × average floor count proxy (3 floors) × building footprint derived from satellite imagery. Coverage is Gaza Governorate only (45 km² AOI); does not include Khan Younis, Rafah, or other southern governorates.",
      "source_url": "https://unosat.org/products/4205"
    }
  },
  "caveats": [
    "This model estimates embodied carbon from cement/concrete only. Total reconstruction carbon debt is substantially higher when steel, transport, and machinery are included.",
    "Floor area estimates for both datasets carry significant uncertainty. The Ukraine figure is an internal proxy; the Gaza figure is derived from satellite-based footprint analysis with ~±20% uncertainty.",
    "Carbon pricing (default $75/t CO₂e) reflects EU ETS mid-range as of 2024. Actual social cost of carbon estimates range from $50 to $200+ per tonne.",
    "This tool does not constitute a formal emissions inventory and should not be used for regulatory disclosure without independent verification."
  ],
  "methodology_version": "m3-v0.1",
  "created": "2026-06-29",
  "repository": "https://github.com/kokubu/geopolitical-carbon"
}