Geopolitical disruption and physical destruction are carbon accounting events.
Every diverted route, destroyed city, and collapsed structure leaves a carbon liability — real, quantifiable, and absent from any Scope 3 disclosure, insurance model, or sovereign transition plan. This tool provides open-source estimates across three unaccounted carbon channels: logistics diversion, conflict reconstruction, and disaster rebuild.
Active scenario — Red Sea / Suez Canal: Since late 2023, Houthi attacks on commercial shipping have displaced hundreds of vessels per week to the Cape of Good Hope route, adding 3,000–4,500 nm per voyage. The CO₂e cost of this diversion is real, quantifiable, and absent from most Scope 3 disclosures.
Red Sea / Suez Rerouting
CO₂e Penalty Calculator
Select a route, vessel type, and assumptions to estimate the additional carbon cost of geopolitical rerouting.
Shanghai→Rotterdam✓ baseline: via Suez Canal (10,500 nm)⚠ rerouted: via Cape of Good Hope (13,750 nm)
Module 3 · Committed Carbon Debt
Reconstruction Committed Carbon Debt
Destroyed infrastructure is a guarantee of future emissions. The cement alone required to rebuild damaged structures in active conflict zones represents a carbon liability that does not appear in any Scope 3 disclosure.
Internal floor-area proxy derived from RDNA3 damage categories. Not a directly quoted floor-area figure.
This carbon is already written. The question is who will account for it. Boundary covers cement embodied emissions only. Actual reconstruction debt including steel, transport, and machinery would be substantially higher. Methodology: reconstruction-v0.1.json.
Module 4 · Disaster Carbon Liability
Natural Disaster Committed Carbon Debt
Earthquakes, floods, and wildfires destroy structures that must be rebuilt. The cement alone required to reconstruct damaged buildings represents a forward carbon liability absent from any Scope 3 disclosure, insurance model, or sovereign green bond prospectus.
Internal proxy: ~24,000 completely or severely destroyed buildings × 95 m² × 1.5 floors avg.
This liability is unaccounted. Natural disaster reconstruction emissions do not appear in any Scope 3 disclosure, insurance reserve model, or sovereign climate transition plan. The rebuild is not carbon-neutral. Methodology: disaster-reconstruction-v0.1.json.